This weekend, we have a PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a lot of cash from this week and that I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it last week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will likely take a few shots at the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square and proceed. He should dominate this fight and he can complete it on the feet or the ground. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying $9.6k for it. When I’m making lineups, I would like to attempt to have at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones could find a finish then perhaps he just dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not need that. However, this is a potential 5-round fight, and that I do expect Jones to control, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get away from Jon Jones because he’ll be very highly owned. If he’s 50% owned by the area and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will kill half the field since that would not be enough points to place him that $50k lineup.
GPP play of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it’ll be out of his wrestling. He is among the best wrestlers in MMA history and today he is finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after dominating every organization he’s been in. He won’t wish to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to shoot takedowns right away and string wrestle till he receives them. Once he gets top control there isn’t likely to become a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he should take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he is able to come up with the success.
Underdog drama of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the quantity from Sanchez should win it there as long as he does not get knocked out. The chin of Diego is what I worry about most nowadays, but Gall is not much of a striker and I really don’t see him becoming knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez are the likely man to be on top if the fight hits the floor. There is A entry the best chance at a win of Gall here and Sanchez has never been submitted. We must have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to pay up for all those guys like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he could grind out a decision win here I presume he can get 10x that salary and when we can get a win against him in that inexpensive salary, then I think we’ll be in line for that $50k win if we hit our other five spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter since I’m making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the man I need the least of. I attempt to get a favored for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I am going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a chance. I believe a fluke KO is the only route to victory for Smith and he really does not possess the one punch/kick power it would take to pull off. I’d be shocked if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I was making 20 or less lineups, he’d be a simple fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 58-37 to get +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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