This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it’s always nice when you’re already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the best, but there’s still a great deal of cash to be won. I will personally be chasing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at those big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock in a win and get all the points in the best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the job done in money games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. But with that win locked in, we simply have to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to need to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena if you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. However, I believe that is what most folks will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we’ll get him at a somewhat lower possession as a consequence of his large salary, and he has a very good shot at obtaining a 1st round triumph. If he can get a 1st round KO then he’ll have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, then I think you should find some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he’s a shell of his old self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end in this struggle so I will throw him some GPPs and expect he is under possessed.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is the betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it is available so I presume he’s in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with the value we are becoming on himbut I am ready to consume that chalk and that I don’t want to get burnt by entirely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic chance at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a massive score from Fili so any win will likely do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he’s the easy underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal bias but I am not going to have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just looking to strike. I think this will be a remarkable battle as well and I think that it’s going to be nearer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I believe we’ll require a complete from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and I don’t see that happening. Should you believe Dober can find a KO, then you should be playing him. I’ll just be paying up elsewhere because I’m not sure he can get that complete and I wouldn’t be amazed if he lost the struggle. I will say that I never look to utilize Dober in DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again here but I am going to stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each fight, my personal approaches & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every single fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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